Is Abiy Ahmed Ali planning to absorb Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and awaken a Pan-Oromo nationalism to go after Fano then Eritrea?
The "Final" peace negotiation between the Ethiopian government and Oromo Liberation Army: Peace negotiation or military alliance?
This high level negotiations is being attended by high level officials of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), with ENDF Head of Intelligence General Getachew Gudina representing the Ethiopian government delegation, and Kumsa Deriba (Jaal Maaro) representing the Oromo Liberation Army.
Ethioforum has reported today that a peace negotiation between the Ethiopian government and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), with Jaal Maaro’s attendance, has begun today at an undisclosed country in southern Africa. According to the Ethiopian government sources Ethiopforum spoke to, the Prosperity government is currently having what it considers a “final negotiation” with OLA, with IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) as the mediator.
This high-level negotiation is being attended by high level officials of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), with ENDF Head of Intelligence General Getachew Gudina representing the Ethiopian government delegation, and Kumsa Deriba (Jaal Maaro) representing the Oromo Liberation Army. According to Ethioforum’s sources within IGAD, Jaal Maaro’s transportation from Wellega, Oromia to the undisclosed African country was handled by IGAD, which sent a helicopter to Kelem Wellega. Jaal Maaro’s attendance was a requirement made by the Ethiopian government.
Another government source told Ethioforum that this negotiation was brought about by the request of the Prosperity government and facilitated by IGAD. It’s important to recall that another media Ethio360 had received a secret recording of the annual meeting hosted by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with Ethiopian Ambassadors throughout the world in early September of this year. In this meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister Demeke Hasen explains to the Ambassadors how the Ethiopian government was planning to handle the wars with Fano and OLA. He tells the Ambassadors that the government was planning to escalate the war in Amhara region with full force to finish it swiftly, while they would pursue negotiations with OLA. The new report today by Ethioforum of the start of the “final” negotiation between Prosperity Party and OLA confirms that the plans outlined by
Demeke Hasen in early September are being implemented, especially when we see the military escalation by the Ethiopian government in Amhara region. It’s been reported in multiple occasions that Abiy Ahmed Ali, in private meetings with influential Oromos as well as constituents, has stressed that Oromos need to unite behind his government and that if he loses power “Oromos will never get a chance to rule Ethiopia for a thousand years.” As Abiy’s Oromo dominated government is losing the War On Amhara, it seems like its working hard to make a formal alliance with OLA and consolidate its support from Oromos so it can escalate the civil war into an ethnic war between Amhara and Oromo. If Abiy succeeds to escalate this war into a war between the two largest ethnic groups, this might end up being the war that destroys Ethiopia.
As Ethiopia is a country governed by an ethnic based constitution, its important to point out the ethnic make-up of the negotiating team between the Ethiopian government and OLA.
Ethnic composition of the negotiating team:
- Ethiopian PM who requested negotiations: Abiy Ahmed (Oromo)
- Lead negotiator for the Ethiopian government: General Getachew Gudina (Oromo)
- Lead negotiator for OLA: Jaal Maaro (Oromo)
- Lead mediator IGAD igadsecretariat: Workneh Gebeyehu (Oromo), also a member of the Prosperity Party
The Ethiopian government has waged a full scale war on Amharas by sending the entire army to the Amhara region to destroy Fano, a force that saved it from defeat as TPLF was advancing to the capital. At the same time the government is seating down to negotiate with OLA, which had made an alliance with TPLF to topple the government. A government affiliated media personality Seyoum Teshome had recently indicated that the Ethiopian government has established a military camp in Adigrat, Tigray for Eritrean opposition groups to initiate a false flag operation against Eritrea that can lead to war so that the Ethiopian government can annex Assab.
The “final” negotiation between the Ethiopian government and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), I don’t believe this negotiation is about bringing peace between the two sides but a desperate attempt by Abiy to form a military alliance with OLA since he’s losing the War On Amhara. The latest insider information on how the talks between the two sides is going is @RArarssa, an Oromo nationalist with close ties to OLA and reliable sources within Oromo Prosperity Party. He was one of the first people to disclose the fallout between Abiy Ahmed and Lemma Megersa before Lemma’s removal from Prosperity Party (PP). He did an interview today on an Oromo media to give details of how the negotiation is going and what the Ethiopian government is offering OLA. He says that his sources within the OLA delegation have informed him that there isn’t much discussion going on and that they’re at a “deadlock.” According to his sources one of the challenges they’ve faced is that the Ethiopian government delegates don’t have the “capability or agency” to make decisions, so they must frequently leave the negotiation room to make a call to Abiy to get his decision. (It’s important to recall that this was also an issue observed during the Pretoria negotiations with TPLF, which shows that every decision of the government is made by Abiy). Tsegaye Ararssa goes on to explain how desperate the Prosperity government has become to absorb OLA by telling them to “join forces and go to the Red Sea.” He says that Abiy’s government is “trying to awaken an Oromo nationalist, Pan-Oromo nationalism, to get all Oromos behind them, with hopes of going after Fano then Eritrea after absorbing OLA.” He says that “if they can’t absorb OLA, they know that their end is near.” “Everyone knows Prosperity Party is in a lot of pressure and stress. If they don’t put a gap (break) in their war with OLA, no matter how many times they attack the Amhara region and use force to control things here and there and even claim that they’ve saved the regional government from collapse, they can do all that but the one thing that is clear is that the government has given up hope that they can win the hearts and minds of the Amhara people. If Amharas aren’t with him, and if Oromos aren’t with him, that means their (Prosperity Party’s) political existence is over. So they understand they’re in a bind.” ~ Tsegaye Ararssa He goes on to say that the Abiy government sees OLA as its biggest threat and they want to give one last shot at negotiation, and if this “final” negotiation fails they will wage an all out war to eliminate OLA so they can move on to their other targets (Fano and Eritrea).
Tsegaye Ararssa Interview
Full Translation: From what I’m hearing from people at the negotiations table, they (OLA) are saying that there isn’t much discussion going on. Word for word they’re saying “it’s a deadlock.” They’re saying, “all the agendas we brought, all the points we brought to the table. For one the negotiators (government) don’t have either the capability or the agency to make decisions.” The OLA representatives will say something but since the other side can’t say if they agree or disagree, they leave the room and make a call. They call Abiy then come back, this is how they’re negotiating. The Prosperity cadres and supporters, and paid activists who are desperate, are talking about reconciliation and peace, and stopping the suffering of the people. They’re saying, “we’ve absorbed WBO (OLA).” By the way, Abiy’s project since the beginning of time, since he took power, even when he fought against Tigray, he said “just give me about 10 people and join Prosperity Party.” This is what he says to them. But those who refused, you can recall what all the Oromo politicians who refused endured. Beyond that, after being pushed from peaceful struggle and facing war, its the OLA that’s fighting back with arms. And now at the end, they (PP) are very desperate to absorb OLA. They’re spewing propaganda to OLA, saying “lets join forces and go to the Red Sea.” They’re trying to awaken an Oromo nationalist, Pan-Oromo nationalism, to get all Oromos behind them, with hopes of going after Fano then Eritrea after absorbing OLA. If they can’t absorb OLA, they know that their end is near. Everyone knows Prosperity Party is in a lot of pressure and stress. If they don’t put a gap (break) in their war with OLA, no matter how many times they attack the Amhara region and use force to control things here and there and even claim that they’ve saved the regional government from collapse, they can do all that but the one thing that is clear is that the government has given up hope that they can win the hearts and minds of the Amhara people. If Amharas aren’t with him, and if Oromos aren’t with him, that means their (Prosperity Party’s) political existence is over. So they understand they’re in a bind. They believe their biggest threat is OLA, so they’re following two paths. Here they’re saying “lets negotiate”, and every time they talk about peace its for war. Abiy in parliament yesterday was talking about peace, if Abiy talks about peace it either means someone is about to get killed or a war is about to start. He uses the talk of peace as a weapon, but if you look at the reality in Ethiopia it’s all war, especially in Oromia there are major fights going on in Guji Birmeji and Wellega.